Construction workers work on repairing an intersection on November 22, 2022 in Houston, Texas. The White House's infrastructure plan estimates to set aside approximately $35 billion for Texas projects. The second time they showed up was the day after I had escaped from prison. A few weeks after that, I met one of my new roommates. He was an old man with a beard that looked like a giant, white, moustache
Overall, 2022 has been a profitable year for the commercial property market. S&P Global predicts that transactions will reach a sum of $800 billion, primarily stimulated by the industrial, retail, and multifamily sectors. Emerging investment targets this year also included unconventional property types like cold storage, data centers, and life sciences.
The industry experienced a significant slowdown post-summer, mirroring the changing season. Recent instability in the U.S. economy has resulted in jittery financiers and reduced consumer buying interest. This market unpredictability has clouded long-term real estate outlooks. However, predicting the trajectory of some current industry trends remains feasible.
Explore the top three trends poised to influence the commercial real estate industry in 2023.
The issue of economic instability will persist as a significant concern.
Despite being ten months into 2022, the question of whether the U.S. is in a recession remains unsettled among economists. The prevailing belief is that economic instability is negatively affecting various industry sectors, commercial real estate included. As a result, many industry leaders predict a negative impact on the sector's financial performance in 2023.
A survey by Deloitte involving 450 real estate executives suggested that continued high inflation could undermine profits. Meanwhile, the ULI Real Estate Economic Forecast anticipates a reduction in America's 2023 commercial real estate transactions to $735 billion from $846 billion in 2021. The forecast also predicts a 0.9% decrease in America's GDP growth in 2023, reinforcing the growing belief of an impending recession next year.
J.P. Morgan Chase predicts an impending recession that could lead to a decrease in demand for all asset types. As the cost of real estate capital rises, activities related to mortgages and refinancing are expected to decelerate. The Mortgage Brokerage Association suggests that this shift may result in an 18% reduction in segment financing by year's end.
Despite the circumstances, the sector still holds potential. J.P. Morgan predicts that due to a 43.7% increase in single-family home prices over the past two years, potential buyers may choose to rent instead. The decline in home purchasing interest, coupled with a shortage of houses in the U.S, could fuel the need for multifamily rental properties.
[Informative Guide] Uncover the four categories of real estate assets that can successfully withstand economic downturns.
The momentum for returning to the office environment will continue to increase.
As a reaction to the COVID-19 crisis, global companies shifted their employees to remote work to maintain operations during social distancing rules. Two years on, 26% of U.S. workers operate from home, with many reporting increased productivity, health, and satisfaction. Yet, a trend to return staff to office spaces has begun, with data suggesting it will intensify in 2023, significantly influencing the office building sector.
Recently, Goldman Sachs and J.P. Morgan Chase, two prominent global banks, summoned their teams back to their brick-and-mortar offices. This move was partly to safeguard their corporate cultures. Goldman's leaders regard in-person mentorship as vital to their historical and future success, while J.P. Morgan's CEO thinks that remote working hampers productivity and the birth of new ideas.
The desire for employees to return to the office is not exclusive to New York's financial district. CEOs across various industries are advocating for their teams to work in-person. This year, tenants of East Coast office buildings have shown an increased preference for their staff to work on-site.
Numerous American workers continue to prefer remote or hybrid work arrangements. The 2021 trend of returning to the office may not have gained traction beyond a specific region. Economic inflation and joblessness remain pertinent issues.
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